Chapter 38 · Probability Distributions
Continuous Distributions 📈
When a quantity can take any value on a scale, probability becomes area under a curve. This notebook builds the density function, the uniform and exponential, the normal, and the CDF, then fits a Gaussian by maximum likelihood, the assumption behind least squares.
Statistics, Data Science and AI: A Visual Handbook · John Fisher · 2026
⚙️ Setup¶
In [1]:
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy import stats
rng = np.random.default_rng(38)
plt.rcParams.update({"figure.dpi":110,"font.size":11,"axes.spines.top":False,"axes.spines.right":False})
TEAL="#0d9488"; PINK="#db2777"; AMBER="#d97706"
print("ready")
ready
DEMO 1 · MASS BECOMES DENSITY
Probability is area under the curve
A continuous variable has a probability DENSITY function (PDF), not a mass function. The height is not a probability; the AREA between two points is. The probability of any exact value is zero.
In [2]:
data = rng.normal(0, 1, size=100_000)
xs = np.linspace(-4, 4, 400)
pdf = stats.norm.pdf(xs)
# P(0.5 < X < 1.5) is the area under the PDF between 0.5 and 1.5
area = stats.norm.cdf(1.5) - stats.norm.cdf(0.5)
print(f"P(0.5 < X < 1.5) = {area:.4f}")
print(f"empirical fraction in (0.5,1.5) = {np.mean((data>0.5)&(data<1.5)):.4f}")
P(0.5 < X < 1.5) = 0.2417 empirical fraction in (0.5,1.5) = 0.2389
In [3]:
fig,ax=plt.subplots(figsize=(7,3.4))
ax.hist(data, bins=60, density=True, color="#cbd5e1", alpha=0.8, label="sample histogram")
ax.plot(xs, pdf, color=TEAL, lw=2.5, label="PDF")
mask=(xs>=0.5)&(xs<=1.5)
ax.fill_between(xs[mask], pdf[mask], color=PINK, alpha=0.45, label="area = P(0.5<X<1.5)")
ax.set_xlabel("x"); ax.set_ylabel("density"); ax.set_title("Density curve: the shaded AREA is the probability"); ax.legend()
plt.tight_layout(); plt.show()
The histogram of a large sample traces out the PDF. Probability is the shaded area, here P(0.5 < X < 1.5) = 0.2417, matched by the empirical fraction. Because a single point has zero width, P(X = exactly 1) = 0; only intervals carry probability.
DEMO 2 · UNIFORM & EXPONENTIAL
Flat odds, and waiting times
The uniform distribution spreads probability evenly over an interval. The exponential models the waiting time until a random event, with mean 1/lambda, and it is memoryless.
In [4]:
lam = 0.5 # rate; mean waiting time = 1/lam = 2
wait = rng.exponential(1/lam, size=200_000)
print(f"exponential mean 1/lambda = {1/lam}, simulated mean = {wait.mean():.3f}")
# memoryless: P(X > 3 | X > 2) = P(X > 1)
p_cond = np.mean(wait[wait>2] > 3)
print(f"P(X>3 | X>2) = {p_cond:.3f} vs P(X>1) = {np.exp(-lam*1):.3f}")
exponential mean 1/lambda = 2.0, simulated mean = 1.995 P(X>3 | X>2) = 0.605 vs P(X>1) = 0.607
In [5]:
fig,(a1,a2)=plt.subplots(1,2,figsize=(8.4,3))
xu=np.linspace(-0.5,1.5,300)
a1.plot(xu, stats.uniform.pdf(xu,0,1), color=TEAL, lw=2.5)
a1.fill_between(xu, stats.uniform.pdf(xu,0,1), color=TEAL, alpha=0.18)
a1.set_title("Uniform(0,1): flat density"); a1.set_xlabel("x"); a1.set_ylabel("density")
xe=np.linspace(0,12,300)
a2.plot(xe, stats.expon.pdf(xe,scale=1/lam), color=AMBER, lw=2.5)
a2.fill_between(xe, stats.expon.pdf(xe,scale=1/lam), color=AMBER, alpha=0.18)
a2.axvline(1/lam, color=PINK, ls="--", lw=2, label="mean = 2")
a2.set_title("Exponential: a long right tail"); a2.set_xlabel("waiting time"); a2.legend()
plt.tight_layout(); plt.show()
The exponential is the continuous cousin of the geometric: both model "how long until the first event", and both are memoryless, having already waited 2 units tells you nothing about the remaining wait. P(X>3 | X>2) equals P(X>1), about 0.607.
DEMO 3 · THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
The bell curve and its two knobs
The normal (Gaussian) is the most important continuous distribution. Its mean mu sets the center; its standard deviation sigma sets the width. Chapter 39 explores it in depth.
In [6]:
xs=np.linspace(-8,10,500)
fig,ax=plt.subplots(figsize=(7,3.4))
for mu,sd,c,lab in [(0,1,TEAL,"N(0,1)"),(0,2,AMBER,"N(0,2): wider"),(3,1,PINK,"N(3,1): shifted")]:
ax.plot(xs, stats.norm.pdf(xs,mu,sd), color=c, lw=2.3, label=lab)
ax.set_xlabel("x"); ax.set_ylabel("density"); ax.set_title("Normal: mu shifts the center, sigma sets the spread"); ax.legend()
plt.tight_layout(); plt.show()
Every normal curve is the same bell, relocated by mu and stretched by sigma. A larger sigma spreads the same total area of 1 over a wider range, so the peak is lower. This single shape, justified by the Central Limit Theorem (Chapter 40), describes a startling amount of the natural world.
DEMO 4 · THE CDF, QUANTILES & GAMMA
From density to cumulative probability
The cumulative distribution function (CDF) gives P(X <= x), the area to the left. Inverting it gives quantiles (percentiles). The gamma family adds flexible right-skewed shapes.
In [7]:
print(f"P(X <= 1.5) for N(0,1) = {stats.norm.cdf(1.5):.4f}")
print(f"95th percentile of N(0,1) = {stats.norm.ppf(0.95):.4f}")
print(f"P(X <= 5) for Exponential(0.5) = {stats.expon.cdf(5, scale=2):.4f}")
P(X <= 1.5) for N(0,1) = 0.9332 95th percentile of N(0,1) = 1.6449 P(X <= 5) for Exponential(0.5) = 0.9179
In [8]:
fig,(a1,a2)=plt.subplots(1,2,figsize=(8.4,3))
xs=np.linspace(-4,4,400)
a1.plot(xs, stats.norm.cdf(xs), color=TEAL, lw=2.5)
a1.axhline(0.95, color=PINK, ls="--", lw=1.5); a1.axvline(stats.norm.ppf(0.95), color=PINK, ls="--", lw=1.5)
a1.set_title("Normal CDF: S-curve from 0 to 1"); a1.set_xlabel("x"); a1.set_ylabel("P(X <= x)")
xg=np.linspace(0,18,400)
for k,c,lab in [(1,TEAL,"shape 1"),(2,AMBER,"shape 2"),(5,PINK,"shape 5")]:
a2.plot(xg, stats.gamma.pdf(xg,k,scale=2), color=c, lw=2.2, label=lab)
a2.set_title("Gamma: tunable right-skew"); a2.set_xlabel("x"); a2.legend()
plt.tight_layout(); plt.show()
The CDF rises from 0 to 1; reading across at 0.95 and down gives the 95th percentile, 1.645 for the standard normal. The gamma distribution (a sum of exponentials) flexes from sharply skewed to nearly bell-shaped as its shape parameter grows, which is why it models waiting times, rainfall, and insurance claims.
DEMO 5 · FITTING A GAUSSIAN
Maximum likelihood and least squares
Fitting a normal to data by maximum likelihood gives mu_hat = the sample mean and sigma_hat = the sample standard deviation. Assuming Gaussian noise is exactly what makes least-squares regression optimal.
In [9]:
sample = rng.normal(170, 8, size=500) # e.g. heights in cm
mu_hat, sigma_hat = sample.mean(), sample.std()
print(f"MLE mu_hat = {mu_hat:.2f} (sample mean)")
print(f"MLE sigma_hat = {sigma_hat:.2f} (sample std)")
MLE mu_hat = 170.01 (sample mean) MLE sigma_hat = 8.22 (sample std)
In [10]:
fig,ax=plt.subplots(figsize=(7,3.2))
ax.hist(sample, bins=30, density=True, color="#cbd5e1", alpha=0.8, label="data")
xs=np.linspace(sample.min(),sample.max(),300)
ax.plot(xs, stats.norm.pdf(xs,mu_hat,sigma_hat), color=TEAL, lw=2.5, label="fitted Normal")
ax.set_xlabel("height (cm)"); ax.set_ylabel("density"); ax.set_title("Maximum-likelihood Gaussian fit"); ax.legend()
plt.tight_layout(); plt.show()
The maximum-likelihood Gaussian recovers the data's mean and spread. This matters far beyond curve-fitting: if you assume the errors of a model are normally distributed, then minimizing squared error is the same as maximizing the likelihood. The Gaussian is why "least squares" is the default in regression and deep learning.
✅ What you built
You saw probability become area under a density, met the uniform, exponential, normal, and gamma, used the CDF to get probabilities and quantiles, and fit a Gaussian by maximum likelihood. Continuous distributions are the language of measurement, and the normal, next chapter, is their crown jewel.
Statistics, Data Science and AI: A Visual Handbook · © 2026 John Fisher