Contents/ Part IX · Probability & Distributions Case Studies/ Chapter 55

Standardized Exam Scores: the Normal

Test scores from a thousand students pile up into the famous bell curve, the normal distribution. We fit its two parameters, confirm the 68-95-99.7 rule on real data, convert scores to percentiles with z-scores, and invert the curve to set fair grade boundaries.

⏱️ ~12 min read
🐍 Notebook included
📊 Chapter 55

We leave the discrete world of counts for continuous measurement. When a quantity is the sum of many small independent influences, ability, preparation, luck on the day, it tends toward the normal distribution. Standardized test scores are the classic example.

φ
The normal distribution is the symmetric bell set by its mean μ (center) and standard deviation σ (spread). A z-score (x − μ)/σ places any value on a universal scale.
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The dataset

academic_standardized_testing.csv holds exam_score for 1,000 students (plus test center and gender). We fit the normal and use it to rank, compare, and grade.

1

Fit the Bell Curve

Two numbers fix a normal: the mean μ ≈ 150 and the standard deviation σ ≈ 8.4. The mean and median nearly coincide and the skewness is near zero, the symmetry that signals a normal, and the fitted bell tracks the histogram of scores.

A matching histogram is suggestive, not proof. The real test is a QQ plot, which lines the data's sorted values up against the values a perfect normal would produce: if the points hug the diagonal, the data is normal, and here they do. A formal Shapiro-Wilk goodness-of-fit test agrees (W = 0.998, p ≈ 0.20, so we cannot reject normality), with skewness 0.07 and near-zero excess kurtosis 0.19. The QQ plot is the ten-second diagnostic worth running any time a method assumes normality.

Exam scores: Normal(μ ≈ 150, σ ≈ 8.4) fits the data mean ≈ 150 exam score →

Symmetry is the normal's calling card: the mean equals the median, and roughly as many students sit a given distance above the average as below it. From here, two numbers locate every student.

2

The Empirical Rule & z-Scores

For any normal, 68% of values fall within 1σ of the mean, 95% within 2σ, and 99.7% within 3σ. On the real scores these come out to 69.3%, 94.8%, and 99.7%, essentially exact.

Scorez-scorepercentile
135−1.823.5%
150 (the mean)−0.0249%
165+1.7796.1%

A z-score turns any raw score into a percentile that is comparable across exams of any scale. A 165 sits about 1.8 standard deviations above the mean, the 96th percentile; a 135 lands near the 3rd. The same score on a different test, with a different μ and σ, would map to its own z and percentile, which is exactly how scores from different years or forms are made comparable.

3

Setting Grade Boundaries

Grading on a curve means running the normal backward: pick a target percentile and read off the score cutoff with the inverse CDF (the percent-point function).

Percentile in, score out

The top-10% cutoff is about 161 (μ + 1.28σ), and indeed roughly 10% of students clear it, the model and the data agree to within a point. The 25th-percentile cutoff is about 145. This is how standardized tests set grade bands, scholarship thresholds, and pass marks: choose a percentile, invert the CDF, and the boundary is fixed, fair and reproducible.

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Run the scores analysis

The companion notebook fits the normal to the exam scores, overlays the bell on the histogram, then validates the fit with a QQ plot and a Shapiro-Wilk test, verifies the 68-95-99.7 rule on the real data, converts scores to z-scores and percentiles, and inverts the CDF to set grade boundaries, every number from code.

📓 View Notebook (code & outputs) ▶ Open in Colab ⬇ View / Download on GitHub

View opens the rendered notebook instantly (no setup). Open in Colab runs & edits it live in your browser. To run locally, install numpy, pandas, scipy, and matplotlib and launch jupyter notebook.

🎓 Key Takeaways

  • Exam scores are normal: a symmetric bell set by μ ≈ 150 and σ ≈ 8.4.
  • The 68-95-99.7 rule held on the real data (69.3 / 94.8 / 99.7%), confirming the fit.
  • z-scores (x − μ)/σ convert any score to a percentile comparable across exams.
  • Inverting the CDF sets grade boundaries: the top-10% cutoff is about 161 (μ + 1.28σ).
  • Two parameters turn a pile of scores into a fair, reproducible ranking.
4

Quiz: Test Yourself

Eight quick questions on the normal case study. Answer them, hit Check Answers, and keep refining until you score 100%. Your progress is saved, so you can hop back to the chapter and return anytime.